供水系统震害预测专家系统

本文建立了供水系统震害预测专家系统，把计算分析方法和专家经验相结合，形成了知识库和推理判断。其中，计算方法考虑了管段的地震反应机理和管土相互作用的特征，包括在地震地质灾害场地的管道震害预测方法。经验判断来的于震害数据和专家经验，较全面地考虑了影响管道震害的主要因素。在ＧＩＳ软件平台上形成了专用程序，界面友好，数据交换方便，已应用于实际工程。

An expert system for predicting damage to water delivery systems

The experiences of past earthquakes have demonstrated that a water delivery system in a city may be vulnerable to earthquakes. It is important to assess the seismic performance of the water delivery system for theoretical development, practice of mitigating earthquake disaster and seismic design and system management. An expert system for evaluating the damage to water delivery system is developed, which includes the system modeling and collection data, such as network data, soil classification data, seismic hazard data, fault and potential liquefaction area etc. The expert system also includes knowledge base and inference process. The knowledge base includes expert experience and analysis method according to seismic response of the buried pipeline. Numerical results of deterministic and stochastic parametric studies show that the algorithm is robust and efficient.