大同-阳高地震水位异常的模糊识别与预报

采用模糊数学从属函数和异常系列方法，以大同－阳高地震为例，对强震发生的时间与地点预测进行研究。结果表明：模糊数学从属函数方法是提取水位异常的较好方法。强震发生前在一定区域内，水位群体异常在不同时间尺度上显示出增长和加速变化图象，这种图象可作为预报强震发生时间的标志。水位变化值异常的集中分布区与水位异常井位置在空间呈两组条带展布时，两组条带交汇地区可作为预报强震发生地点的标志

FUZZY IDENTIFICATION OF GROUNDWATER LEVEL ANOMALY BEFORE THE DATONG YANGGAO SHOCK AND ITS IMPLICATION TO EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

We have studied the groundwater level anomaly before the Datong Yanggao earthquake by using the fuzzy mathematical method. Our results show that the subordinate function method can be used to identify the anomaly of groundwater level changes. Before the earthquake, in certain area and at different time scales, the group anomaly of groundwater level had a pattern of increasing and accelerating changes. This information can be used to predict the occurrence time of earthquakes. If the distribution of water level anomaly and distribution of the water wells which have anomaly look like two zones, the intersection area of the both zones may be the site of future major earthquakes.