连云港水稻产量的气象影响因子分析

经验正交函数分析方法(EOF)是正交函数分解方法的一种,其优点是可将某要素场分解为不随时间变化的空间函数部分的特征向量及与空间无关的时间函数部分。该方法同样可用于某空间点的多要素特征分析,得到的空间函数每个特征向量都反映了所有要素某种共性。本文则是利用EOF这一特性,选取连云港地区历年(1961—2007年)水稻各个生育期的多个气象因子与气象产量做EOF分析,选取方差贡献大的前4项特征向量中与产量相关性较好的因子,作为影响因子。并通过对影响因子多年变化趋势及波动特征年的分析,剔除其相关性差的因子,最终得到与产量密切相关的气象因子。

An analysis on meteorological impact factors of rice yield in Lianyungang region

Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) is a kind of orthogonal function decomposition method,it can decompose a factor field into two parts,one is a space function with not change over time,the other is a function of time. EOF can also be applied to single-point multi-element analysis, the resulting space is the response function of a number of major changes in characteristics of the elements of feature vectors. Using this feature, we select the meteorological factors in various rice growing season from 1961 to 2007 to do EOF analysis. We select factors of large variance from the feature vectors as the impact factors, which were consistent (opposite) with the yield factor. Through analysis of trend and volatility characteristics of impact factors, excluding factors related to poor correlation, we found the meteorological factors which were closely related to the rice production