Disparity between measured and BSR heat flow in the Xisha Trough of the South China Sea and its implications for the methane hydrate

We calculate the heat flow from the depth of bottom-simulating seismic reflectors (BSRs) on a seismic profile in the Xisha Trough of the South China Sea, and compare them with the probe heat flow measurements. The BSR heat flow turn out to be 32–80 mW/m², significantly lower than the measurements of 83–112 mW/m². Such big disparity cannot be ascribed only to the errors from parameters (parameter errors) that traditionally believed to influence the BSR heat flow. Besides the parameter errors, we discuss emphatically the errors coming from the theoretical assumption for the BSR heat flow determination (theoretical errors), which occur when the BSR depth does not coincide with the base of the methane hydrate stability zone (MHSZ). If BSR stays bellow the base of MHSZ, lying at the top of free gas zone, the derived heat flow would be underestimated. Compared with the parameter errors, the theoretical errors would be relatively larger in some geological settings. The disparity between measured and BSR heat flow in the Xisha Trough might be mainly due to the theoretical error. Based on the theoretical model, assuming that the BSR lying at the top of the free gas zone, the methane flux along the Xisha seismic profile is estimated, and the thickness of the methane hydrate occurrence zone is predicted.