Improving Wind-Ramp Forecasts in the Stable Boundary Layer

The viability of wind-energy generation is dependent on highly accurate numerical wind forecasts, which are impeded by inaccuracies in model representation of boundary-layer processes. This study revisits the basic theory of the Mellor, Yamada, Nakanishi, and Niino (MYNN) planetary boundary-layer parametrization scheme, focusing on the onset of wind-ramp events related to nocturnal low-level jets. Modifications to the MYNN scheme include: (1) calculation of new closure parameters that determine the relative effects of turbulent energy production, dissipation, and redistribution; (2) enhanced mixing in the stable boundary layer when the mean wind speed exceeds a specified threshold; (3) explicit accounting of turbulent potential energy in the energy budget. A mesoscale model is used to generate short-term (24 h) wind forecasts for a set of 15 cases from both the U.S.A. and Germany. Results show that the new set of closure parameters provides a marked forecast improvement only when used in conjunction with the new mixing length formulation and only for cases that are originally under- or over-forecast (10 of the 15 cases). For these cases, the mean absolute error (MAE) of wind forecasts at turbine-hub height is reduced on average by 17%. A reduction in MAE values on average by 26% is realized for these same cases when accounting for the turbulent potential energy together with the new mixing length. This last method results in an average reduction by at least 13% in MAE values across all 15 cases.