Local recent changes in extreme air temperature |
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Authors: | A. Palumbo A. Mazzarella |
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Affiliation: | (1) Istituto di Geologia e Geofisica, Università di Napoli, Italy |
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Abstract: | Daily minimum and maximum air temperatures recorded in Naples (1872–1982) and in surrounding areas have been analysed in order to set up a statistical model for investigating climatic changes of extreme air temperature. We have analysed on various time-scales the mean values of minimum air temperature lower than the 10th percentile (Tmin10) and the mean values of the maximum air temperature greater than the 90th percentile (Tmax90). The results have shown for the city: (i) a significant secular trend both for yearly Tmin10 and Tmax90, mostly due to the process of urbanization, that is also responsible for (ii) the ascertained change in the character of the annual cycle, (iii) a reasonable ability to forecast winter Tmin10 and summer Tmax90 in statistical terms using a markovian model, and (iv) a significant 11-yr cycle with an amplitude of 0.5 °C directly related to solar activity which has never been succesfully determined before. |
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