采用随机模拟技术与常规水文方法相结合的洪水过程模拟法

随着江河上兴建的水利工程日渐增多，流域的防洪规划和防洪调度工作，正在从以个别工程为主要研究对象转向以全流域复杂库群为研究对象。常规水文方法很难反映这种复杂流域的水文特性，在工程实践中其局限性越来越突出。随着计算机运算能力的提高，径流的随机模拟技术逐步得到研究和应用。本文分析了常规水文方法与纯数学随机模拟技术的不足，并提出了一种新的、简单易行的模拟全流域洪水的模拟方法，该方法已应用于太子河流域的库群联合防洪调度中，并取得了较好的成果。

A Flood Simulation Method by Combining Random Analog Technique with Conventional Hydrology Method

With more and more water projects have been built,the study focus of flood control planning and dispatching has been diverted from single project to a complex group of reservoirs in whole basin.With the development of computer technology,the random analog technique has been applied to simulate runoff and accurately describe the hydrologic characteristics of a complex catchment. This paper discusses the defects between conventionalhydrology method and random analog technique.A new method is given to simulate flood in a catchment,which hasbeen put to use of a group of the reservoirs in Taizihe River Basin,and has gained a better result.