| 洪水预报中特征值预报的若干数学方法比较 |
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| 引用本文： | 李致家,孔祥光.洪水预报中特征值预报的若干数学方法比较[J].湖泊科学,1997,9(2):117-122. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李致家 孔祥光 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学水资源水文系!南京210024(李致家)，沂沭泗水利管理局!徐州221009(孔祥光) |
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| 摘 要： | 讨论研究了水文特征值预报的数学方法，统计回归模型、神经网络模型和模糊回归模型。三个计处实例表明如果系统的线性关系较好，统计回归模型的结果最好；如果系统的线民生关系差，神经网络模型的结果最好；如果用于率定模型的资料太短，任何一个模型都不可靠。
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| 关 键 词： | 洪水预报 神经网络 回归分析 数学法 特征预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 1995/9/27 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 1996/1/22 0:00:00 |
Comparison on Three Mathematical Models For Special Values in Flood Forecasting |
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| Li Zhijia and Kong Xiangguang.Comparison on Three Mathematical Models For Special Values in Flood Forecasting[J].Journal of Lake Science,1997,9(2):117-122. |
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| Authors: | Li Zhijia and Kong Xiangguang |
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| Institution: | Department of Water Resoures & Hydrology, Hohai University, Nanjing 210024 and Yishusi Civil Engineering Bureau, Ministry of Water Resources, Xuzhou 221009 |
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| Abstract: | Three mathematical models, i. e. regressive analysis method, artificial neutral method and fuzzy regressive method, are commonly used in the flood forecasting for special values. The practical calculation results of three cases provided in this paper show that either one is suitable for all cases. The regressive analysis method is favorable when the system has better linear correlations;otherwise the artificial neutral net method is better if the system is not linearly correlated. None of the above-mentioned method is reliable when the data needed for the calibration are not enough. |
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| Keywords: | Flood forecasting artificial neutral method regressive analysis fuzzy regressive analysis |
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