Sensitivity analysis of nitrogen and carbon cycling in marine sediments

Biogeochemical cycles in coastal sediments encompass numerous interconnected processes and are sensitive to a high number of external forces. Usually a small subset of these factors is considered when developing state-of-the-art models of marine nutrient cycling. This study therefore aims to assess the degree of complexity required in the model to represent the dependency of major biogeochemical fluxes on both intrinsic as well as external factors. For this, a sensitivity analysis (SA) of the generic Integrated Sediment Model (ISM) was performed comparing two different model setups: 1) a back barrier tidal flat in the German Wadden Sea and; 2) a deep sea site in the Argentine Basin. Both setups were first calibrated to fit pore water profiles of SO₄²⁺, NH₄⁺ and CH₄. We then employed a new type of SA that evaluates parameter impact rather than targeting variable change.General structural stability of the model is demonstrated by similar sensitivity patterns of both setups regarding carbon and nitrogen cycling. Mean temperature, organic carbon bio-availability, bacterial adaptation and sediment texture emerge as the most influential parameters of ubiquitous importance. It appears that in coastal settings, transport and sediment mixing and the composition of suspended particles in the bottom water are especially important. The nitrogen cycle displays a high responsiveness to internal feedback mechanisms as well as interdependencies to carbon and metal cycling, which is statistically reflected by sensitivities to 79% of all parameters. In contrast, the carbon cycle appears to be mainly controlled by organic matter decay. The SA also pointed to unexpected responses of the sediment system, which are analyzed by further scenario calculations. These, for example, reveal a nonlinear response of nitrification, denitrification and benthic fluxes of NH₄ and NO₃ to changing bioturbation and bioirrigation due to the interactions of different metabolic pathways.