Probability of a great earthquake to recur off the pacific coast of central Japan

Probabilities of a great earthquake recurring in the Tokai district. Central Japan, are estimated on the basis of the statistical analysis of recurrence tendency and strain accumulation as monitored by geodetic surveys. Although probabilities thus estimated vary in a fairly wide range depending on data, attention should be paid to the fact that the probability of having a great earthquake within 10 years' time from 1977 is estimated as high as 30–50%.