NUIST地球系统模式模拟热带气旋活动的气候特征分析

采用恒定的现代外部强迫驱动第一版NUIST地球系统模式,进行了40年全球热带气旋活动模拟,分析了热带气旋活动的气候特征,并与1977—2016年观测资料对比分析。结果表明：该模式能够模拟出与热带气旋类似的结构特征,在热带气旋活动活跃的海区,模拟热带气旋生成的空间分布和影响范围与观测基本一致,但是各个海区热带气旋的生成频数与观测还存在差异。除了北印度洋海区,各个海区热带气旋生成频数的季节变化与观测相似。模式在西北太平洋海区模拟结果最好,能模拟出热带气旋的生成范围和盛行路径;在北印度洋地区模拟结果较差,北印度洋海区的相对涡度模拟与观测存在较大差异,这是模式未能模拟出北印度洋热带气旋双峰特征的主要原因。

Analysis of climate characteristics of tropical cyclone activities simulated by the NUIST Earth system model

By using the NUIST Earth system model v1 (NESM v1) with a constant external forcing, 40-year global tropical cyclone activities were simulated, and the simulation data were compared with the observations (1977-2016). The results show that NESM v1 can simulate vortex structure similar to tropical cyclones in the area where tropical cyclones are active, The spatial distribution and impact range of simulated tropical cyclones are basically consistent with the observations, but the numbers of tropical cyclones in various areas are different from the observations. In addition to North Indian Ocean, the numbers of tropical cyclones in different seasons are similar to the observations. The model has the best simulation in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, it can simulate the formation area and prevailing path of tropical cyclones. The simulation results in the North Indian Ocean are poor. NESM model simulates relative vorticity different from observation, so it cannot simulate the bimodal characteristic in North Indian.