| Stage Predictions of Landslide and Subsidence from an Once-Through Cycle |
| |
| 作者单位： | Yan Tongzhen
Department of Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology，China University of Geosciences，Wuhan 430074 |
| |
| 摘 要： | In this paper both processes of landslide and subsidence are consid-ered to be limited systems.Each of these systems in nature might be re-garded as an organism.Generally their lifespan must develop with com-mon ecological characteristics,including several evolutional stages,such asinitiation,growth,maturation,decline and death.Among these stages,maturation is emphasized so as to find the occurring or thriving date ofboth systems.An once-through cycle of both landslide and subsidence isestablished and is accurately predicted by a developed,mathematic model of thePoisson cycle.The Weibull distribution is cited for a landslide example.Both fundamentals are discussed.Stage predictions of landslide and subsid-ence are performed for several examples.Back analysis of landslides thathave already happened are studied with the same model.And when com-pared with results from the biological mathematic model and with practicalresults,it is found that they correspond.Stage prediction of subsidences isalso researched
|
Stage Predictions of Landslide and Subsidence from an Once - Through Cycle |
| |
| Authors: | Yan Tongzhen |
| |
| Institution: | Yan Tongzhen
Department of Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074 |
| |
| Abstract: | In this paper both processes of landslide and subsidence are considered to be limited systems. Each of these systems in nature might be regarded as an organism. Generally their lifespan must develop with common ecological characteristics, including several evolutional stages, such as initiation, growth, maturation, decline and death. Among these stages, maturation is emphasized so as to find the occurring or thriving date of both systems. An once-through cycle of both landslide and subsidence is established and is accurately predicted by a developed, mathematic model of the Poisson cycle. The Weibull distribution is cited for a landslide example. Both fundamentals are discussed. Stage predictions of landslide and subsidence are performed for several examples. Back analysis of landslides that have already happened are studied with the same model. And when compared with results from the biological mathematic model and with practical results, it is found that they correspond. Stage prediction of subsidences is also researched by the principle of the Poisson cycle. |
| |
| Keywords: | limited system landslide subsidence stage predictions of an once-through cycle the Poisson cycle the Weibull distribution back analysis/future analysis |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
|
