唐山老震区地震活动特征

整理校正唐山长时间地震序列数据，用基于时空ETAS模型的随机除丛法，分析1976年唐山长时间地震序列的活动特点，发现唐山老震区1992年后进入余震活动的晚期阶段，目前地震活动未完全恢复到背景地震的水平。用频度和应变能两种不同的异常指标分析唐山老震区作为“余震窗口”对中强震的指示意义，发现唐山余震窗口的早期阶段（1980-1986年），频次作异常指标映震效果较好，晚期阶段（1992-2010年），应变能作为异常指标映震效果更好。

Study on seismicity features of Tangshan Seismic Region

This paper corrected complete Tangshan earthquake sequence data for long time. Based on the time-space epidemic-type aftershock sequence （ETAS） model and stochastic declustering method declustering on 1976 Tangshan earthquake sequence analyzed activity characteristics of long time. The result showed that Tangshan seismic region entering the late phase of the aftershock activity after 1992, now seismic activity has not yet been fully restored to the background seismicity level. With the frequency and strain energy of two different abnormal index analyzed the indicative significance of Tangshan Seismic Region as ＂aftershock window＂ forecast the moderate and strong earthquakes, The result showed that 1980--1986 in the early stages of Tangshan ＂aftershock window＂, frequency as abnormal index reflecting earthquake effect was better, 1992--2010 in the late stages, strain energy as the abnormal index reflecting earthquake effect was better.