Seismic hazard assessment in central Ionian Islands area (Greece) based on stress release models

The long-term probabilistic seismic hazard of central Ionian Islands (Greece) is studied through the application of stress release models. In order to identify statistically distinct regions, the study area is divided into two subareas, namely Kefalonia and Lefkada, on the basis of seismotectonic properties. Previous results evidenced the existence of stress transfer and interaction between the Kefalonia and Lefkada fault segments. For the consideration of stress transfer and interaction, the linked stress release model is applied. A new model is proposed, where the hazard rate function in terms of X(t) has the form of the Weibull distribution. The fitted models are evaluated through residual analysis and the best of them is selected through the Akaike information criterion. Based on AIC, the results demonstrate that the simple stress release model fits the Ionian data better than the non-homogeneous Poisson and the Weibull models. Finally, the thinning simulation method is applied in order to produce simulated data and proceed to forecasting.