唐宋暖期我国东部重大气象、水文灾害的时空分布特征

唐宋时期是我国气候中的重要暖期,开展该时期区域灾害时空格局研究,可为气候变暖的影响研究提供实证案例,为潜在极端气候风险防范提供依据。基于《中国古代重大自然灾害和异常年表总集》,以10年为时间分辨率,将气象、水文类灾种整合归类为冷害、热害、旱灾、水灾、其他灾害,并以省为基本单元统计唐宋时期我国东部地区(南北方)重大气象、水文灾害的发生频次,分析其时空分布特征。结果显示:唐宋暖期灾害可分为3个高发期和4个低发期,存在"较少发-高发-少发-较高发"循环的特点;南、北方自然灾害高发期和低发期并不同步;灾害发生具有空间集中性(多发于浙江、河南、陕西、山东、河北和江苏),南方多水灾、旱灾,北方多水灾、冷害。唐宋时期灾种构成与现今相似,重大水灾发生频次是旱灾的3～4倍。受经济发展地域范围和经济水平、灾害记录详略及灾害等级评判标准差异的影响,现代灾害发生频次增大,具有区域分布集中性,主要发生于华北、华中、华南,区域分布范围明显南扩。在气候变暖情况下,应重点防范水灾、旱灾和冷害。

Spatial-Temporal Characters of Severe Meteorological Disasters and Floods in Eastern China for the Tang and Song Warm Period

Tang and Song Dynasties is an important warm period.In view of this,studying the regional disaster in this period will provide the empirical case for the climate change and its impact study,and foundation for potential extreme weather risk prevention.Based on the book,named《The chronology collection of major natural disasters and abnormal accidents in ancient China》,10-year time resolution,the disasters being classified as cold damage,heat damage,drought,floods and other disasters.The province as the basic unit,when counting the characters of time-space of severe climate disasters and flood in the eastern China for the Tang and Song warm period,while compared with the major disasters of the past five years.The results show:disasters can be divided into three-high and four-low periods,structured the loop duplicate characteristics of "lower frequencies-high frequency-low frequency-higher frequencies";the high frequency and low frequency characteristics of natural disasters in south and north areas generally shows inverse correlation;disasters are floods in the main,about 2.4 years;disasters are spatial concentration(Zhejiang,Henan,Shaanxi,Shandong,Hebei and Jiangsu),floods and drought occur mainly in south area,floods and cold damage occur mainly in north area.The disaster composition of Tang and Song Dynasties is similar to the modern disaster’s:floods,droughts and cold damage are the main disasters;major flooding frequency is 4 times of drought.Affected by the economic development and the change of scope,records and disaster evaluation,modern disasters increase in frequency and have concentrated regional distribution;occur mainly in the north,central and south china;and the scope of the regional distribution is significantly south expansion.