基于IPAT模型的安徽省不同情景碳排放趋势测度分析

基于1995-2010年能源消费数据,利用IPAT模型,分规划情景、惯性情景、低碳情景对安徽省未来碳排放量及碳排放强度进行测度,结果表明:2015年,安徽省在规划情景、惯性情景、低碳情景下的碳排放量分别为16 680.96万t、14 790.52万t、11 235.49万t,均呈增长态势,碳排放强度分别为0.6952t/万元、0.6661t/万元、0.6533t/万元,呈下降趋势,规划与惯性情景模式下的碳排放量和碳排放强度均高于低碳情景模式。3种情景碳排放曲线表明,不会出现库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)拐点。科技创新、机制创新是实现碳减排的重要途径,"十二五"期间,安徽省通过提高能源效率、优化能源结构、创新机制等举措,碳排放仍有较大削减空间。

Prediction and Analysis of Carbon Emission under Different Scenarios in Anhui Province Based on IPAT Model

Prediction on carbon emission can disclose the carbon emission in the future,from which the government would make the right carbon emission plan and countermeasure.According to the energy consumption data of Anhui during 1995-2010,based on IPAT model,the carbon emission and carbon emission intensity were predicted under plan,inertial and low carbon scenarios.Results showed that the carbon emissions of Anhui were 166.8096 million tons,147.9052 million tons and 112.3549 million tons under the above three scenarios.The carbon emissions were increasing at a rather rapid rate,and the growth rate under low carbon scenario was lower than the rest scenarios.The curve for carbon emissions proved that the inflection point of Kuznets curve roughly would not appear.There was a decrease in carbon emission intensity in Anhui,the carbon emission intensity was 0.6952 t/10 000RMB,0.6661 t/10 000RMB and 0.6533 t/10 000RMB under the above three scenarios respectively,and the carbon emission intensity under low carbon scenario was lower than the rest scenarios.Technology and mechanism innovation was important to reduce of carbon emissions.In a word,it has proved to be economically profitable to reduce the carbon emission of Anhui Province in the "China′s 12th Five-Year Plan" period,by improving the energy efficiency,optimizing energy structure and innovativing mechanisms.