矿业城市经济系统脆弱性评价——以铜陵市为例

矿业城市经济系统脆弱性包含敏感性和适应性两方面,具有典型的复杂、非线性系统特征。以一般系统理论构建敏感性和适应性发展水平和发展速度评价模型,以反正切函数构建二者耦合度评价模型,并以耦合度表征经济系统的脆弱度。以铜陵市为例,2001-2010年该市经济系统敏感性和适应性状态值呈递增正相关变化,适应性变化速度快于敏感性(前者先递增后递减,后者平稳递增);脆弱度在2005年前递增,之后递减,评价结果与铜陵市经济发展实际相符。基于一般系统理论的耦合度评价模型为矿业城市经济系统脆弱性研究提供了一种新途径。

Evaluation on Vulnerability of Economy System for Mining Cities:A Case Study of Tongling City

The economic system′s vulnerability of mining city contains two aspects of sensitivity and adaptability,and is a typical complex,nonlinear system.Based on the general system theory to construct evaluation model for the sensitivity and adaptability of the level and speed of development,and based on the arctangent function to construct evaluation model for coupling degree of the two systems,and using the coupling degree to express the vulnerability of economy system,the results showed that,from 2001 to 2010 in Tongling City,the sensitivity and adaptive state values of the economy system showed increasing positive relation each other,and adaptive changes faster than sensitivity;sensitivity and adaptive speed value changes are different,the former is increasing firstly and then decreasing,the latter increases by degrees smoothly;vulnerability is increasing firstly and then decreasing,segmentation points is before and after 2005;the results of evaluation are consistent with the actual situation of economy development of Tongling,and based on the general theory of system coupling degree evaluation model provides a new way for economic system vulnerability research of mining city.