基于数理统计方法的闪电气候研究

基于广东省1999—2015年闪电定位系统数据,利用数理统计方法得出广东省闪电气候年际变化特征、季节变化特征、月变化特征,利用最小二乘法得到闪电密度气候变化趋势系数和年、季节的气候倾向率。利用Matlab来对广东省1999—2013年的雷暴日进行分析,得出其年际周期变化规律,最后采用EOF方法,借助Arc GIS平台得出广东省闪电密度空间向量场分布图。结果表明:由1999—2015年,广东全省的地闪密度总体趋势是逐渐增加,闪电日数最多的月份集中在6—8月(夏季);雷暴日存在变化具有周期性、规律性,分别有13～16 a,7～11 a、2～6 a 3种不同尺度的周期;闪电密度空间分布特征主要有一致型、局部型、纬向型和经向型4种类型。

Lightning climate study based on mathematical statistics

Based on the data the lightning location system of Guangdong province from 1999 to 2015, the mathematical statistical methods were used to obtain the characteristics of the annual changes of lightning in Guangdong province, the characteristics of the seasonal changes and the characteristics of monthly changes. The least square method were used to obtain the climate change trend coefficient of lightning density and the climatic tendency rate of the seasons . The matlab were used to analyze the thunderstorm days in Guangdong province from 1999 to 2013, in order to get the change of annual cycle. Finally, the EOF method were used to get the distribution of lightning density spatial vector field in Guangdong province. The results showed that: from 1999 to 2015, the overall trend of lightning density in Guangdong province was gradually increasing, the maximum number of lightning days is June to August (summer); the change of thunderstorm days is periodic and regular, there is 3 different scales , that is 13-16 years, 7-11 years, 2-6 years . The spatial distribution characteristics of lightning density mainly include uniform type, local type, weft type and warp type.