Gully cut‐and‐fill cycles as related to agro‐management: a historical curve number simulation in the Tigray Highlands

Gully cut‐and‐fill dynamics are often thought to be driven by climate and/or deforestation related to population pressure. However, in this case‐study of nine representative catchments in the Northern Ethiopian Highlands, we find that neither climate changes nor deforestation can explain gully morphology changes over the twentieth century. Firstly, by using a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate historical catchment‐wide curve numbers, we show that the landscape was already heavily degraded in the nineteenth and early twentieth century – a period with low population density. The mean catchment‐wide curve number (> 80) one century ago was, under the regional climatic conditions, already resulting in considerable simulated historical runoff responses. Secondly, twentieth century land‐cover and runoff coefficient changes were confronted with twentieth century changing gully morphologies. As the results show, large‐scale land‐cover changes and deforestation cannot explain the observed processes. The study therefore invokes interactions between authigenic factors, small‐scale plot boundary changes, cropland management and sociopolitical forces to explain the gully cut processes. Finally, semi‐structured interviews and sedistratigraphic analysis of three filled gullies confirm the dominant impact of (crop)land management (tillage, check dams in gullies and channel diversions) on gully cut‐and‐fill processes. Since agricultural land management – including land tenure and land distribution – has been commonly neglected in earlier related research, we argue therefore that it can be a very strong driver of twentieth century gully morphodynamics. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.