Characteristics of Energy Accumulation and Release of Seismogenic Tectonics and Seismic Risk Analysis in Some Areas in the Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang1

INTRODUCTIONHowtocombinethestudyofseismogenictectonicswithearthquakepredictionisanurgentscientificdifficulty .Thereexistbiggapsbetweenstudymethodsandcurrentknowledgeonseismogenitectonics ,earthquakeprediction ,seismogenesisandthephysicsofearthquakeoccurre…

Characteristics of Energy Accumulation and Release of Seismogenic Tectonics and Seismic Risk Analysis in Some Areas in the Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang

Comparative analysis between the quantitative data of active faults and seismicity reveals that a complete earthquake recurrence cycle includes the characteristic earthquake and the sub-maxima earthquakes in-between. The magnitude of the sub-maxima events is correlated with the elapsed time of the characteristic earthquake and the slip rate of the fault. The fault displacement includes the major stick-slip generated by the characteristic earthquakes and the minor stick-slip by the sub-maxima ones. The magnitude-frequency relationship still works in the complete recurrence cycle. The energy accumulation in the cycle is divided approximately into four phases, and the seismicity differs at each phase. The relation of the maximum displacement with the average displacement of the characteristic earthquake suggests the partitioning of deformation between the characteristic and the sub-maxima earthquakes. Based on the above analysis, relevant mathematical equations are put forward for the quantitative assessment of the potential magnitude and earthquake risk of seismogenic tectonics. Tentative study has been carried out in this aspect in some areas of Tianshan.