长江沿线样带土地利用变化时空模拟及其对策

短时期(几年或几十年)的土地利用变化,主要受社会经济因素的驱动和自然因素的约束。各类土地利用变化基本上都能从与人类生产活动密切相关的耕地和城乡建设用地的变化上得到反映。利用修订后的GTR模型,对长江沿线样带未来30年的土地利用变化进行了模拟。研究发现,东部地区的耕地面积将进一步减少,而全区的耕地和建设用地面积将增加。根据研究区未来土地利用变化的时空特点,提出了相关应对策略,以利于区域土地持续利用的实现

Spatio-temporal modelling of land use changes in transect of the Yangtse River and corresponding countermeasures

Land use and cover change (LUCC) is an important component of global environmental change research, and terrestrial transect initiated by the international geosphere-biosphere programme (IGBP) is a suit of integrated global environmental change research, which emphasizes interpretation of global environmental change problems with grads methods. Taking transect as a series of coherent research sites, LUCC can determine how land use and corresponding land cover change under the influences of social and environmental factors. Transect of the Yangtse River (TYR), with obvious grads either in the change of physical environmental factors or in the level of socioeconomic development, was taken as a study area in this paper. Land use changes in several years or decades are mainly driven by socioeconomic factors and restricted by physical factors, and they can be mainly reflected by the changes of cultivated land and built-up land, which are tightly interrelated with human productive activities. Land use changes of TYR in future 30 years were modelled through applying revised Generalized Thunen-Ricardian model. It shows that, between 2000 and 2030, the area of cultivated land in eastern part will further decrease; however, the area of cultivated land and urban and rural settlements in overall will increase. According to the spatio-temporal characteristic of land use changes in future, corresponding countermeasures were put forward as the following to realize regional sustainable sustainable land use: (a) scientifically laying out city/town planning and strengthening reconstruction of old city zone; (b) strictly managing rural housing and carrying out aggregating scattered houses; (c) coordinating the relationship between land development and cultivated land protection; and (d) realizing regional sustainable socioeconomic development relying on resources and breaking the cycle of poverty and unsustainable land use.