Problems of regional population growth in Serbia

The paper considers regional differences in population growth in Serbia and highlights the contrast that has emerged between Kosovo and Metohia and the other regions of the country since World War Two. Due to continuing high fertility coupled with declining mortality, growth in Kosovo and Metohia has been three times greater than in Serbia Proper and five times greater than in Voivodina, regions which have been following closely the European demographic transition. Since the population in Kosovo and Metohia is overwhelmingly Albanian these divergent demographic trends are sharpening ethnic tension as the demographic weight of the Serbs decreases in the country as a whole. At the same time the dominance of the Albanians within the province may well contribute to the independence struggle. Since the maintenance of high fertility, with a relatively slow decline - even in comparison with Albania - could be linked with externalities, it is suggested that a solution might be found in more autonomous development for the province which might bring an increase in local responsibility for sustainable development and a decrease in the currently high level of demographic investment. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.