地下水动态趋势和短临异常

在无其他因素引起水量增、减条件下,地下水动态大于一年的趋势变化是地下水动态的异常变化。识别地下水动态异常变化的条件是调查观测井的水文地质环境、水动力条件及水量有无变化。在趋势异常发展背景下地下水动态趋势的转折与地震活动有关。列举了河间等三口井近年来的水位观测结果,表明短临异常在震前均有趋势变化背景,因此短临异常的判别要以趋势变化分析为基础。地下水动态趋势异常和短临异常随时间的分布是有序的,用序列异常方法分析异常与地震活动形势,研究序列异常发生、发展、演变的规律与地震活动的关系,对地震发生的时间和强度有较好的预报意义。

Dynamic tendency of underground water level and its imminent anomalies

Change of underground water level dynamic tendency for more than one year may be anomalous one, when there is no increasing or decreasing in water quantity. It is the prerequisite for investigating the hydrogeologic environment, hydrodynamic condition and the change in water quantity for the recognition of underground water level's dynamic anomaly. Under the background of anomalous tendency, the turning of dynamic tendency for underground water level is related to seismicity. Here we present some strong earthquake examples occurred in recent years. These events show that the imminent anomalies before the earthquakes all had tendency changes. Therefore, the determination for short-term or imminent anomalies should be based on tendency analysis. The time distribution for underground water level's tendency anomalies and its imminent anomalies is in a definite order. Analyzing anomalies and seismicity with sequence method and studying the relationship between the anomalies occurrence, development and seismicity is of significance for earthquake prediction.