| 祁连山区主要河流径流演变及趋势预测分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 谢建丽,张德栋,刘圆圆.祁连山区主要河流径流演变及趋势预测分析[J].水文,2011,31(5):88-91. |
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| 作者姓名： | 谢建丽 张德栋 刘圆圆 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 甘肃省水文水资源局,甘肃兰州,730000
2. 水利部水文局,北京,100053 |
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| 摘 要： | 应用多种趋势检验方法对祁连山区主要河流年平均径流量演变进行分析,并用数学建模技术对未来10年的径流量变化趋势进行预测。旨在为甘肃水利"十二·五"规划涉及的河西地区水资源配置和可持续发展以及应对气候变化的适应能力提供决策依据和技术支撑。结果表明:祁连山区现状径流量自东向西总体呈"减少—增加—显著增加"演变;预计未来该区5年、10年径流量值自东向西总体呈"减少—增加—增加"变化。
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| 关 键 词： | 祁连山区 径流演变 趋势预测 |
Forecasting Runoff Change Trend of Main Rivers in Qilian Mountain Area |
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| XIE Jianli,ZHANG Dedong,LIU Yuanyuan.Forecasting Runoff Change Trend of Main Rivers in Qilian Mountain Area[J].Hydrology,2011,31(5):88-91. |
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| Authors: | XIE Jianli ZHANG Dedong LIU Yuanyuan |
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| Institution: | XIE Jianli1,ZHANG Dedong1,LIU Yuanyuan2(1.Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau of Gansu Province,Lanzhou 730000,China,2.Bureau of Hydrology,MWR,Beijing 100053,China) |
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| Abstract: | We applied various trend test methods to analyze the mean annual runoff change of the main rivers in the Qilian Mountain area,and used the mathematical modeling techniques to forecast the runoff change trend in the next 10 years.The results show that the runoff in the Qilian Mountain area appear reduce-increase-significant increase from east to west.It is expected that the annual runoff will appear reduce-increase-increase from east to west in the next 5 or 10 years. |
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| Keywords: | Qilian mountain runoff change trend forecasting |
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