| 广西后汛期降水分型预报探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 覃志年,况雪源,钟利华.广西后汛期降水分型预报探讨[J].气象研究与应用,2002,23(2):9-11. |
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| 作者姓名： | 覃志年 况雪源 钟利华 |
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| 作者单位： | 广西气候中心,广西,南宁,530022 |
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| 摘 要： | 将广西后汛期降水进行 EOF分解后 ,利用前六个特征向量进行空间分型 ,并根据对应时间系数的符号及大小将降水场转化为数字化时间序列 ,再运用序相关相似方法进行因子的选取及降水场数字化时间序列的预测 ,1998- 2 0 0 1年的预报结果表明 ,效果较好
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| 关 键 词： | 后汛期 降水 空间分布 序相关 预报 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-5191(2002)02-0009-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002年1月10日 |
Probe into the Forecast Based on Precipitation Types in After-flood Season of Guangxi |
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| QIN Zhi nian,KUANG Xue yuan,ZHONG Li hua.Probe into the Forecast Based on Precipitation Types in After-flood Season of Guangxi[J].Journal of Guangxi Meteorology,2002,23(2):9-11. |
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| Authors: | QIN Zhi nian KUANG Xue yuan ZHONG Li hua |
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| Abstract: | An introduction to a new kind of precipitation forecast way is made in this paper. After the EOF decomposition of precipitation in after flood season on Guangxi, precipitation is classified in space by using the first 6 characteristic vectors and the precipitation field is turned to digital time serial according to the symbols and numbers of the corresponding time coefficient. Then select the factors and predict the digital time serial of the precipitation field by using serial correlated similitude method. The forecast results during 1998 ~ 2001 proves its good effect in actual operation. |
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| Keywords: | after flood season precipitation space distribution serial correlated forecast |
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