中国森林资源动态变化的社会经济学初步分析

从回顾建国以来中国森林资源的变化历程入手,计算了不同时段的森林采伐率,并在此基础上分析了影响森林资源动态变化的社会经济因素。其中工业用材和燃料、薪柴是导致高森林采伐率主要因素;人口数量及人口密度和经济发展水平是制约森林资源消长的重要因子。

Socioeconomic factors determining China's deforestation rates

As a renewable resource,forests notonly provide timber and other products but also have influences on biodiversity and genetic resources.In recent decades,China has higher deforestation rates than some other countries.Between1994and1996 ,the average annual deforestation in China was approximately 3.0 % of the forested area. The underlying causes of deforestation are,however,poorly understood.In this paper,the correlation between deforestation in China and9socioeconomic variables is analyzed,and the result shows that there are significant correlations between deforestation and some variables.In China,forest products per unit forest area have the greatest effects on deforestation rate. Our analyses reveal several possible causes of deforestation such as overpopulation, cyclical econom ic fluctuation and errors in policy,and show that strong domestic demand for timber and fuel- wood and charcoal owing to overpopulation and economic development is the principal cause of high deforestation.According to previous deforestation studies, policy factor deserves greater attention. Our studies have important policy and managementimplications,and advocate that some measures should be adopted in order to slow down the declining tendency of forest resources in China.