Steric height trends at Ocean Station Papa in the Northeast Pacific Ocean

Abstract

We estimate secular changes in steric sea level in the northeast Pacific Ocean using the 27‐year time series of monthly hydrographic observations for Station PAPA (50°N, 145°W). Linear trends based on the entire data record suggest that steric heights relative to 1000 db are increasing at a rate of 0.93 mm/yr and that 67% of this increase is due to thermosteric changes at depths below 100 m; the smaller halosteric contribution to the steric trend appears to be confined to the upper 100 m. A trend of 0(1 mm/yr) is consistent with estimates of sea level rise based on coastal tide gauge records. However, a critical examination of the results indicates that sea level changes of such small magnitude would be masked by the large (1–10 cm) interannual variability of open ocean steric height. This is verified by recalculation of trends using abridged versions of the data set. We conclude that our trend estimates are still open to question and that the present 27‐year time series is too short to permit accurate resolution of possible climate‐induced changes in global sea level.