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A deductive model of karst evolution based on hydrological probability
Authors:C C Smart
Abstract:Combination of a conduit flow law with the exceedance probability of stream discharge allows the estimation of the exceedance probability of water level in a simple conduit aquifer. The probability of water levels higher than available relief is interpreted as the probability of surface as opposed to underground runoff. Very high probability of surface runoff implies a fluvial environment, whereas very low probabilities define a mature karst or ‘holokarst’, Intermediate probabilities identify ‘fluviokarst’. Overflow probability depends on available relief, mean discharge, and especially conduit radius. Growth rate of the underground conduit depends on saturation deficit which thus controls the rate of evolution of the fluvial landscape, through fluviokarst to holokarst. However, variations of discharge and sedimentation through time can cause dramatic reversion of karst drainage into less mature states. Landscapes experiencing such periodic rejuvenation will have a confused morphology. A functional definition of landscape may be more objective and pertinent than arbitrary interpretation of form.
Keywords:Karsi  Landscape evolution  Modelling
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