FUZZY PROBABILITY PREDICTION METHOD FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK |
| |
Authors: | Mao Shaorong and He Zhong |
| |
Institution: | Guangzhou Central Observatory, Guangzhou 510080;Guangzhou Central Observatory, Guangzhou 510080 |
| |
Abstract: | Based on forecasting criteria of tropical cyclone categories of left and right turning and stable track and fuzzy mathematical principles, a fuzzy probability prediction method is formulated for track changes. It is 48-h valid for forecasting sudden change or stable track as well as giving fuzzy probability of trajectory, for the use in decision-making. As shown in operational experiments, if is easy to operate, simple to illustrate, objective to quantify.definite to conclude. and satisfactory to actualize. It is dependable with high level of reference, especially when the fuzzy probability is greater than 70%. for errors in direction and 48-h mean distance errors are all lower than those at major forecasting centers at home or abroad. |
| |
Keywords: | tropical cyclone track category turning index fuzzy probability |
|
| 点击此处可从《热带气象学报(英文版)》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《热带气象学报(英文版)》下载免费的PDF全文 |