绿洲耕地变化趋势及其驱动力——塔里木盆地南部策勒绿洲为例

以多年的野外实地调查资料和统计资料，分析了塔里木盆地南部策勒绿洲50年以来耕地面积变化的总体趋势、空间差异和驱动因子。基于GPS现场定位，应用GIS进行空间分析，通过建立多元回归模型，最终对该绿洲2010年和2020年的耕地数量进行了初步的预测。分析结果表明社会经济发展动态、农业科技进步和水土资源的限制等3大类因素是影响耕地数量的3个主成分，其结果将为进一步研究整个塔里木盆地南部绿洲耕地变化提供借鉴，为合理利用和保护耕地、为干旱区可持续发展提供科学依据。

Tendency and Driving Forces of Cultivated Land Use Change in Qira Oases: The Case of Qira Oases in South of Tarim Basin

Based on years of on-the-spot investigated materials and statistical data, this paper analyses the overall tendency, spatial differences and driving forces of the cultivated land change of Qira oases in the south of Tarim Basin. Based on GPS instant positioning, initial prediction of the cultivated land amount of Qira oases in 2010 and 2020 was carried out by means of establishing multiple regression mode and GIS aided spatial analysis. The result shows that dynamic changes of society and economy, improvement of agricultural technology, restrictions of water and land resources are three primary factors influencing cultivated land amount change in the arid area. The authors believe that this study will provide scientific basis for sustainable oasis agricultural development of this region.