北京地区夏季多模式降水预报的降尺度集成应用

以2008—2010年5—9月日本、德国、T639数值预报模式降水产品为基础,采取反距离插值的统计降尺度分析方法,将数值预报模式降水格点数据插值到北京西北、东北、西南、东南区域的延庆、密云、房山、观象台4个典型代表站点上;再结合统计分析,将夏季产生降水的天气系统分为西来槽、东北低涡、蒙古低涡、其他系统4种类型,采用预报准确率定级方法对各家模式配以不等权权重系数,从而建立北京地区夏季多模式集成降水预报模型,并用独立的样本对预报模型进行了业务试运行检验,检验结果表明:所建模型对降水预报的改进效果较好,优于单个数值模式降水预报。该模型的建立和应用方法为其他区域本地释用数值模式降水预报产品提供了一定的客观参考。

Application of Downscaling and Integrating Multi Mode Summer Precipitation Forecasts in Beijing

Based on Japan, Germany, and T639 numerical model gridded forecast products of precipitation from May to September 2008 to 2010, using the method of inverse distance interpolation to downscale, the precipitation of each grid numerical model forecast fields is interpolated to four stations: Yanqing, Miyun, Fangshan, Beijing Meteorological Observatory, which are the representative stations of the northwest, northeast, southwest, southeast of Beijing. Precipitation weather in Beijing can be divided into four categories: westerly trough, Northeast vortex, Mongolia vortex, and other systems. The forecasting accuracy rating method is used to calculate weighting coefficients of numerical prediction models. Then the objective precipitation forecast model is set up. Using independent samples to test the model, the test results show that the objective integration precipitation forecast model is superior to the independent model, which has reference value for summer precipitation forecasting and numerical model application.