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A GENERALIZED CANONICAL MIXED REGRESSION MODEL FOR ENSO PREDICTION WITH ITS EXPELMENT
Authors:JIANG Zhi-hong  DING Yu-guo and ZAI Pan-mao
Institution:Naming Institute of Meteorology Naming 210044 China;Naming Institute of Meteorology Naming 210044 China;National Climate Center of China, Beijing 100081 China
Abstract:A scheme is proposed for predicting NINO-region SST in terms of a generalized canonical mixedregression model based on principal component canonical correlation analysis(PC-CCA). and into the scheme are introduced such techniques as EEOF, PRESS criterion and consensus prediction. By optimizing physicalfactors and selecting optimal model parameters, experiments were made successful in predicting the LINO SST index for 1 to 4 seasons to follow. The scheme is shown to be stable in operation and its total technical level compares well with that of the model published in NOAA/NWS/NCEP CPC Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. butthe number of factors needed in our scheme is much fewer than that for the CPC's model in dealing with the sameproblems. This makes it possible to establish an operational ENSO monitoring system in China.
Keywords:ENSO prediction  canonical regression  prediction scheme
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