Case studies of seasonal rainfall forecasts for Hong Kong and its vicinity using a regional climate model |
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| Authors: | David Tai-Wai Hui Karen Kit-Ying Shum Ji Chen Shyh-Chin Chen Jack Ritchie John O Roads |
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| Institution: | (1) Hong Kong Observatory, 134A Nathan Road, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China;(2) Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China;(3) US Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Riverside, CA, USA;(4) Experimental Climate Prediction Center, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093-0224, USA |
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| Abstract: | Seasonal climate forecasts are one of the most promising tools for providing early warnings for natural hazards such as floods
and droughts. Using two case studies, this paper documents the skill of a regional climate model in the seasonal forecasting
of below normal rainfall in southern China during the rainy seasons of July–August–September 2003 and April–May–June 2004.
The regional model is based on the Regional Spectral Model of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction of the United
States. It is the first time that the model has been applied to a region dominated by the East Asian Monsoon.
The article shows that the regional climate model, when being forced by reasonably good forecasts from a global model, can
generate useful seasonal rainfall forecasts for the region, where it is dominated by the East Asia monsoon. The spatial details
of the dry conditions obtained from the regional climate model forecast are also found to be comparable with the observed
distribution. |
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| Keywords: | Regional climate model Dynamical downscaling Seasonal rainfall forecasts Scaled Hanssen and Kuipers score Hong Kong Southern China |
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