| 条件区域云概率分布模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 邵启勇,张军.条件区域云概率分布模型[J].气象科学,1999,19(1):57-65. |
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| 作者姓名： | 邵启勇 张军 |
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| 作者单位： | 南空气象中心!南京，210018，空军气象学院气象二系!南京，211101 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文在引入区域相关场和正态化转换技术的基础之上，通过MonteCarlo模拟建立了条件区域概率分布模型，较好地解决了单点概率和区域分布概率之间的关系，并通过大量计算，得到了条件区域概率分布模型的拟合函数，从而使区域范围内的概率天气预报成为可能。特别是为战时气象信息封锁条件下，进行区域范围内的概率天气预报提供了新的思路。
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| 关 键 词： | 概率预报 MonteCarlo模拟 正态化转换 区域概率分布 |
PROBABILITY MODEL OF CLOUD OCCUPYING AN AREA |
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| Shao Qiyong.PROBABILITY MODEL OF CLOUD OCCUPYING AN AREA[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,1999,19(1):57-65. |
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| Authors: | Shao Qiyong |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,on the basis of spatial correlation theory and Equivalent Normal Deviate,by means of Monte carlo simulation,probability model of weather conditions occupying an area has been produced that can be used to estimate the probability that a certain weather condition will cover a given area or fraction of an area. The curves were fitted by equation making it possible to obtain solutions quickly by computer. Probability model of weather conditions occpying an area make it possible to obtain probability forecast in an area,especially when the meteorology records were closed in war. |
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| Keywords: | Probability forecast Monte Carlo simulation Equivalent normal deviate Probability occupying an area |
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