TRP与Logit概率预报模式计算比较分析

本文分别利用TRP模式及Logit模式与MOS相结合的方法，对南京市的能见度及云量进行了24小时概率预报试验。通过对两种模式的比较分析，结果表明：Logit模式的拟合率比TRP模式的高，而在实际预报中，TRP模式的预报准确率高。同时，TRP模式的计算更为方便灵活。

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF TRP AND LOGIT PROBABILITY FORECAST MODELS

In this paper,with the method of combining MOS with TRP and Logit probability forecast models respectively,the experiments of 24 hour probability forecast of wiibility and sky cover in Nanjing are made. By the comparative analysis of the forecast made by these two models,the results show that the fitting accuracy of model Logit is hasher. But the forecast accuracy of model TRP is hasher in practice. At the same take,the computation of model TRP is more convenience.