| 地震临界丛集的判定及其应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 孟国杰,罗灼礼,牛安福,翟璐媛. 地震临界丛集的判定及其应用[J]. 大地测量与地球动力学, 2004, 24(1): 68-71 |
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| 作者姓名： | 孟国杰 罗灼礼 牛安福 翟璐媛 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国地震局分析预报中心,北京,100036
2. 中国地震局,北京,100036 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家十五科技攻关项目(2 0 0 1BA60 1B0 2 0 2 )，地震科学联合基金 (10 2 0 69)项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 介绍了地震临界时间丛集的判定方法——时间结构变异诊断方法。把时间结构变异诊断方法运用于1999年岫岩地震序列及中国大陆强震活动特性研究，并按此方法预测了中国大陆未来大震可能发生的时间点。研究认为，时间结构变异诊断法不仅可以用作前震序列和余震序列以及正常震群活动的判断，同时也适用于区域地震活动状态的描述。震例研究表明，时间结构变异诊断法在地震预测中具有实际意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 时间变异系数 非线性 地震预测 地震活动特征 地震临界丛集 |
| 文章编号： | 1671-5942(2004)01-0068-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003-07-27 |
JUDGMENT OF CRITICAL SEISMIC CLUSTERING AND ITS APPLICATION |
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| Meng Guojie+{)},Luo Zhuoli+{)},Niu Anfu+{)} and Zhai Luyuan+{)} ) Center for Analysis and Prediction,CEA,Beijing ) China Earthquake Administration,Beijing. JUDGMENT OF CRITICAL SEISMIC CLUSTERING AND ITS APPLICATION[J]. Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, 2004, 24(1): 68-71 |
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| Authors: | Meng Guojie+{)} Luo Zhuoli+{)} Niu Anfu+{)} Zhai Luyuan+{)} ) Center for Analysis Prediction CEA Beijing ) China Earthquake Administration Beijing |
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| Affiliation: | Meng Guojie+{1)},Luo Zhuoli+{2)},Niu Anfu+{1)} and Zhai Luyuan+{1)} 1) Center for Analysis and Prediction,CEA,Beijing 100036 2) China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100036 |
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| Abstract: | The method of judging seismic critical clustering, i.e. Time Frame Coefficient Method(TFCM) is firstly introduced. The probable period and the temporal characteristics of great earthquake occurrence in the future in China continent are discussed after the TFCM is applied to the research on Xiuyan seismic series in 1999.The TFCM can be used to judge foreshock series, aftershock series and normal seismic activities,and it can also be applied to describe the characteristics of regional seismic activities. Researches on historical earthquakes showed that TFCM bears practical meaning in earthquake predliction. |
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| Keywords: | time frame coefficient nonlinearity earthquake prediction seismicity feature seismic critical clustering |
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