| Institution: | 1.Department of Geography, Delhi School of Economics,University of Delhi,Delhi,India;2.International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI),The Earth Institute at Columbia University,Palisades,USA;3.Bogor Agricultural University,Bogor,Indonesia;4.Research Institute for Global Change,JAMSTEC,Yokohama,Japan;5.Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI),Kyoto University,Uji,Japan;6.Department of Geography, Kalindi College,University of Delhi,Delhi,India |
| Abstract: | In this study we discuss probabilistic forecasts of Citarum River streamflow, which supplies 80 % of the water demands in Jakarta, Indonesia, based on general circulation model (GCM) output, for the September–November (SON) season. Retrospective forecasts of precipitation made over the period 1982–2010 with two coupled-ocean atmosphere GCMs, initialized in August, are used in conjunction historical streamflow records, with a cross-validated regression model. Pearson’s product moment correlation skill values of 0.58–0.67 are obtained, with relative operating characteristic scores of 0.67–0.84 and 0.74–0.92 for the lower and upper tercile categories of flows respectively. Both GCMs thus demonstrate promising ability to forecast below/above normal streamflow for the Citarum River flow during the SON season. |
