应用耦合模式进行2003年度气候预测试验

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所IAP/LASG GOALS 4.0耦合模式,引进外强迫因子(温室气体、太阳活动及硫酸盐气溶胶)变化的影响后进行了2003年度集合预测试验研究.结果表明:GOALS耦合模式预测出了2003年夏季淮河流域的降水正异常,也较好地描述了中国区域大气环流场的变化.说明GOALS 4.0耦合模式在我国的短期气候预报业务中具有一定的预测能力.但该版模式分辨率还嫌太粗,无法细致地描述我国区域的降水分布.

Experiment of Interannual Climate Prediction for 2003 with Coupled Model

An ensemble prediction was performed for predicting precipitation anomaly over China during June to August 2003 by using coupled model. The fourth version model, Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model (GOLAS 4.0), was developed by State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. We introduced the change of external forcing factors, such as greenhouse gas, solar activity, and sulfate into coupled model, and then, made an ensemble prediction for 7 initial fields integrating. The ensemble results showed that the positive precipitation anomaly over the Huaihe River valley in summer 2003 has been well predicted by the GOALS. The predicted pattern of general circulation anomaly (e.g.,500 hPa geopotential height and 850 hPa stream field) agrees well with the observation. All above results indicated that the GOALS has good predictability in short-term climate prediction over China. However, due to coarse resolution in this version, the GOALS model cannot describe detailing distribution of precipitation anomaly over China.