黄河流域平均气温变化趋势分析

采用线性倾向估计和非参数统计检验（Mann-Kendall）方法计算黄河流域78个气象站点12个月及年平均气温多年来的长期变化趋势,并在计算结果基本一致的前提下,重点对Mann-Kendall法的计算结果进行了分析.结果表明,黄河流域平均气温总体呈现上升趋势,这种趋势主要归因于1、2、12月气温的升高;气温上升趋势以12月份表现最明显,8月份表现最平缓;全流域年平均气温只有4个站点表现出下降趋势,不同月份变化趋势的地区分布亦有差异,并根据这些差异将流域进行了分区.

Long-Term Trend of Temperature in the Yellow River Basin

On the basis of average temperature from 78 meteorological stations in the Yellow River basin, the monotonic trends of temperature over the past more than 30 years are analyzed with linear trend method and Mann-Kendall method. The analysis is mainly made for 12 months and the annual average temperature with the emphasis on the result of Mann-Kendall method. The isogram for the long-term trend of annual temperature is given. The result shows that the average temperature exhibits an increasing trend, mainly because of the increase of temperature in December, January and February. The largest trend is shown in December, while the smallest in August. However, temperature from several stations and months show declining tendency. Large differences show in areas and months, and according to these differences, the Yellow River basin is further divided into four regions.