Earthquake slip estimation from the scarp geometry of Himalayan Frontal Thrust, western Himalaya: implications for seismic hazard assessment

Geometric and kinematic analyses of minor thrusts and folds, which record earthquakes between 1200 AD and 1700 AD, were performed for two trench sites (Rampur Ghanda and Ramnagar) located across the Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT) in the western Indian Himalaya. The present study aims to re-evaluate the slip estimate of these two trench sites by establishing a link between scarp geometry, displacements observed very close to the surface and slip at deeper levels. As geometry of the active thrust beneath the scarp is unknown, we develop a parametric study to understand the origin of the scarp surface and to estimate the influence of ramp dip. The shortening estimates of Rampur Ghanda trench by line length budget and distance–displacement (D–d) method show values of 23 and 10–15 %, respectively. The estimate inferred from the later method is less than the line length budget suggesting a small internal deformation. Ramnagar trench shows 12 % shortening by line length budget and 10–25 % by the D–d method suggesting a large internal deformation. A parametric study at the trenched fault zone of Rampur Ghanda shows a slip of 16 m beneath the trailing edge of the scarp, and it is sufficient to raise a 8-m-high scarp. This implies that the Rampur Ghanda scarp is balanced with a single event with 7.8-m-coseismic slip in the trenched fault zone at the toe of the scarp, 8–15 % mean deformation within the scarp and 16-m slip at depth along a 30° ramp for a pre-1400 earthquake event. A 16-m slip is the most robust estimate of the maximum slip for a single event reported previously by trench studies along the HFT in the western Indian Himalaya that occurred between 1200 AD and 1700 AD. However, the Ramnagar trenched fault zone shows a slip of 23 m, which is larger than both line length and D–d methods. It implies that a 13-m-high scarp and 23-m slip beneath the rigid block may be ascribed to multiple events. It is for the first time we report that in the south-eastern extent of the western Indian Himalaya, Ramnagar scarp consists of minimum two events (i) pre-1400 AD and (ii) unknown old events of different lateral extents with overlapping ruptures. If the more optimistic two seismic events scenario is followed, the rupture length would be at least 260 km and would lead to an earthquake greater than Mw 8.5.