Chronology and dispersal characteristics of recently (last 5000 years) erupted tephra of Cotopaxi (Ecuador): implications for long-term eruptive forecasting

Cotopaxi, the highest active volcano on earth and one of the most dangerous of Ecuador is constituted by a composite cone made up of lava and tephra erupted from the summit crater. The activity of the present volcano begun with large-volume plinian eruptions followed by a succession of small-volume lava emissions and pyroclastic episodes which led to the edification of a symmetrical cone. The growth of the cone was broken by an episode of slope failure, the scar of which is now obliterated by recent and historical products. Volcanic history, eruptive frequency and characteristics of the activity were investigated by studying the stratigraphy of tephra and carrying out fifteen new ¹⁴C dating on paleosols and charcoals. The investigated period is comprised between the slope failure and the present. The deposit of the volcanic landside (dry debris avalanche of Rio Pita), previously believed to be between 13,000 and 25,000 yr B.P., is now considered to have an age slightly older than 5000 yr B.P. The stratigraphy of tephra of the last 2000 years reveals the existence of 22 fallout layers. Seven of them were dated with ¹⁴C whereas three were ascribed to the eruptions of 1534, 1768 and 1877 on the basis of comparison with historical information.Maximum clast size distribution (isopleths) of 9 tephra layers points out that the sustained explosive eruptions of Cotopaxi during the last 2000 years are characterized by very high dispersive power (plinian plumes with column heights between 28 and 39 km) and high intensity (peak mass discharges from 1.1 to 4.1 × 10⁸kg/s). The magnitude (mass) of tephra fallout deposits calculated from distribution of thickness (isopaches) are, however, moderate (from 0.8 to 7.2 × 10¹¹ kg). The limited volume of magma erupted during each explosive episode is consistent with the lack of caldera collapses. Small-volume pyroclastic flows and surges virtually accompanied all identified tephra fallouts. During such an activity large scale snow/ice melting of the summit glacier produced devastating mudflows comparable in scale to those of 1877 eruption. By assuming a 1:1 correspondence between fallout episodes and generation of large-scale lahar, we have estimated an average recurrence of one explosive, lahartriggering event every 117 years over the last two millennia. This value compares well with that calculated by considering the period since Spanish Conquest. The probability of having an eruption like this in 100 or 200 years is respectively of 0.57 and 0.82. Such an high probability underscores the need for quick actions aimed at the mitigation of Cotopaxi lahar hazard along all the main valleys which originate from the volcano.