Long-term earthquake prediction along the seismic zone of the Solomon Islands and New Hebrides based on the time- and magnitude-predictable model

Instrumental and historical information on strong main-shocks for 13 seismogenic sources along the seismic zone of the Solomon Islands and New Hebrides has been used to show that the interevent time,T _t (in years), between two strong earthquakes and the magnitude,M _f, of the following mainshock are given by the relations $$begin{gathered} log T_t = 0.17M_{min } + 0.31M_p - 0.33 log dot M_O + 6.36, hfill M_f = 0.51M_{min } - 0.12M_p + 0.541 log dot M_O + 9.44, hfill end{gathered} $$ whereM _min is the surface wave magnitude of the smallest main-shock considered,M _p is the magnitude of the preceding mainshock, andM _o is the moment rate per year in each source. On the basis of these relations, the probability for the occurrence of a mainshock during the decade 1993–2002 as well as the magnitude of this expected mainshock in each seismogenic source has been calculated. The highest probability value (P ₁₀ = 0.79) was estimated for the seismogenic sources of Santa Cruz-Ndeni Islands (H ₁) and Tana Island (H ₅) for the occurrence of a large or great earthquake with expected magnitudesM _f = 7.7 and 7.5, respectively.