北京山区泥石流预警阈值初步研究

泥石流预警阈值,是突发地质灾害防灾减灾的重要参考指标。本文结合北京山区泥石流灾害特点和已有降雨阈值研究成果,一方面在泥石流沟易发性、物源和危害人数进行分级的基础上,提出不同级别沟谷在不同前期降雨条件下,不同发灾概率的激发雨量,极大地方便了中短期预警实际工作;另一方面将泥石流流域降雨量、土壤含水率、次声、泥位4个参数,作为泥石流短临灾害预警关键物理参数,开展了泥石流专业监测设备预警阈值研究。最终,从技术层面上构建不同时间维度的泥石流监测预警阈值体系,为北京山区泥石流监测预警提供技术支持。

Preliminary Study on Early Warning Threshold of Debris Flow in Beijing Mountainous Area

The warning threshold is the critical reference index to monitor debris flow. According to the characters of debris lfow in Beijing area and theoretic research in the ifeld, two aspects contents are introduced in the article: 1) based on hazard tendency, provenance and the number of victims, debris flow ditches are divided into three levels. The authors propose rain thresholds for different ditch level, antecedent rainfall and hazard probability. This method provides the convenience for medium and short-term warning; 2)The rainfall value, water-content of soil , infrasonic wave information as well as the mud level are chosen as the four indexes of early warning of debris lfow. And the threshold values are studied in the paper. Finally, the system of warning threshold of debris lfow is established ,which can offer technical support for early warning of debris lfow.