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The Value of Improved ENSO Prediction to U.S. Agriculture |
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| Authors: | Andrew R. Solow Richard F. Adams Kelly J. Bryant David M. Legler James J. O'Brien Bruce A. McCarl William Nayda Rodney Weiher |
| Affiliation: | (1) Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, 02543, U.S.A;(2) Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, 97331, U.S.A;(3) Southeast Research Center, University of Arkansas, Monticello, AR, 71656, U.S.A;(4) Center for Ocean-Atmosphere Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, 32306, U.S.A;(5) Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, U.S.A;(6) Office of Policy and Strategic Planning, NOAA, Washington, DC, 20230, U.S.A |
| Abstract: | The economic value of long-range weather prediction is measured by the increase in social welfare arising from the use of the prediction in economic decisionmaking. This paper describes a study of the economic value of ENSO prediction to U.S. agriculture. The interdisciplinary study involved the analysis of data and models from meteorology, plant science, and economics under a framework based on Bayesian decision analysis. The estimated annual value of perfect ENSO prediction to U.S. agriculture is $323 million. |
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