边坡可靠度风险评价分析

确定性设计安全系数法由于简单易行得到了广泛的应用。可靠度方法在一定程度上弥补了确定性设计中不能考虑实际工程中岩体参数离散性的问题，使设计更加符合实际情况。函数连分式方法在边坡一次二阶矩概率设计中可以方便地计算出状态函数对各随机变量的偏导数，也可使传统安全系数法和可靠度分析有机结合。考虑经济最优的原则，结合风险分析来确定可靠度法设计中的可靠度数值问题。由安全系数和可靠性共同度量边坡系统的稳定性，建立传统安全系数与可靠度理论耦合的边坡稳定二元体系，可有效地考虑边坡系统内实际存在的不确定性和相关性，使边坡的稳定性评价更加客观精确，为边坡安全和滑坡灾害的风险性管理提供理论和方法。

Analysis of slope reliability and damage risk evaluation approach

Inasmuch simple and convenience,the deterministic design method is broad used in project design.The reliability design method can be considered as discretization of rock parameter,so the design is more consistent with the project practice.The partial derivatives of the performance function to random variable can be calculated easily with continued fraction.The traditional safety factor method can be combined with probabilistic analysis and be complemented each other in First Order Second Moment(FOSM).Considering the least cost of the project,this paper concerns the damage risk analysis,and educes the reliability level used in possibility design method.Based on the safety factor which has plenty of engineering experience,choosing the representative safety factor and its reliability,we shall tentatively build dual index system of slope stability coupling safety factor and reliability and measure slope stability by coupling safety factor and reliability.Dual index system of the slope stability coupling traditional safety factor and reliability may effectively consider the uncertain and the correlation in slope system,make the assessment of the slope stability much more objective and precision,and provide a new theory and method for the safety of the slope and the risk management of the landside.