陆地表层碳循环模型研究及其趋势

对国外陆地表层碳循环ＯＢＭ、ＴＥＭ、ＣＡＳＡ、ＣＡＲＡＩＢ、ＤＥＭＥＴＥＲ－１、ＩＭＡＧＥ２．０、ＳＩＢ２等模型进行了评述，同时也简要介绍了国内陆地表层碳循环模型的研究。通过对国内外研究现状的对比分析，我们可以看到国外陆地表层碳循环模型的发展特点：已经从静态模型转向动态模型，综合考虑了动力学特点，并且集成陆地表层碳循环的各个过程，与气候模型耦合研究陆地表层对全球变化的响应，建立生态生理模型和决定植被对气候反应的植物生态生理机制；研究陆地生态系统与大气之间的动态响应和相互作用，揭示其中的反馈机制；加强各种情景研究，同时包括人为的影响，尤其是土地利用和土地覆盖变化对陆地碳存储的影响，预测未来全球陆地表层的动态变化及其反馈；由于遥感数据已经成为全球变化研究重要的数据来源，遥感、地理信息系统技术在陆地表层碳循环研究中得到了重视和应用。这些正是我国陆地表层碳循环模型研究应注意和加强的方面。

THE STUDY AND TRENDS ON TERRESTRIAL CARBON CYCLE MODELS

In this paper some terrestrial carbon cycle models in the world and China are introduced. After comparing the state-of-the-art development between the world and China, it is suggested that, on the study on terrestrial carbon cycle models in China, the following aspects should be paid attention to: (1) Future terrestrial carbon cycle models should pay attention to the development of dynamic model and be able to simulate the impacts of human activities. (2) The models are dynamic. They can reveal not only the feedback relationship between terrestrial carbon cycle and climate change but also the interaction between terrestrial and atmosphere, and predict terrestrial dynamic change and feedback impact in China in future. (3) The models can utilize technique and methods of Geographical Information System and Remote Sensing to provide strong pools and data. (4) The models of terrestrial carbon cycle should couple with climate models to study the impacts of climate change on terrestrial carbon cycle. Meanwhile, the models should strengthen scenario study and predict changes in future so that the models can provide theory basis and foundation for making policy of greenhouse gas emission in China.