| 试用累积求和方法研究地震活动平静现象及大震概率预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 王丽凤, 马丽, 李勇, 陈时军. 试用累积求和方法研究地震活动平静现象及大震概率预报[J]. 地球物理学报, 2002, 45(05): 672-683, |
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| 作者姓名： | 王丽凤 马丽 李勇 陈时军 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国地震局分析预报中心,北京,100036; 2. 北京师范大学数学系,北京,100875; 3. 山东省地震局,济南,250014 |
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| 摘 要： | 以表征区域地震活动强度背景的震级期望值作为单个地震事件的目标值,利用震级累积和C值随时间的变化分析地震活动相对平静现象,并给出其显著性检验. 文中还定量分析了平静异常与大震的关系,提出了利用核函数对大震发生时间进行概率外推的方法. 用上述方法对华北区的山西、张家口-渤海地震带的部分地区及新疆区域进行计算,显示该方法能够描述地震活动平静现象,并可合理地对未来大震发生时间进行概率外推估计.
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| 关 键 词： | 区域背景 累积求和 地震平静 显著性 核估计 |
| 收稿时间： | 2001-02-26 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002-03-04 |
RESEARCH ON SEISMIC QUIESCENCE USING MAGNITUDE CUMULATIVE SUM METHOD AND PROPABILITY PREDICTION OF GREAT EARTHQUAKES |
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| WANG LI FENG, MA LI, LI YONG, CHEN SHI JUN. RESEARCH ON SEISMIC QUIESCENCE USING MAGNITUDE CUMULATIVE SUM METHOD AND PROPABILITY PREDICTION OF GREAT EARTHQUAKES[J]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics (in Chinese), 2002, 45(05): 672-683, |
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| Authors: | WANG LI FENG MA LI LI YONG CHEN SHI JUN |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Center of Analysis and Prediction, China Seismological Bureau, Beijing 100036, China; 2. Department of Mathematics, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 3. Seismological Bureau of Shandong Province, Ji’nan 250014, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on cumulative sum （CUSUM） method in quality control theory, seismic quiescence is research by means of changes of CUSUM value. The magnitude expectation, reflecting some characteristics of the region's background is taken as expected magnitude of each event. The significance of seismic quiescence is analyzed. We quantitatively study the relation between quiescence and strong earthquake and extrapolate the probability of earthquake occurrence using kernel estimate method. The results of Shanxi, Zhangjiakou-Bohai seismic zone in North China and parts of Xinjiang show that seismic quiescence can be effectively described by cumulative sum method, and kernel estimate is a good way to make probability prediction of earthquakes. |
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| Keywords: | Regional background Cumulative sum Seismic quiescence Significance Kernel estimate |
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