基于统计分析的半潜式平台气隙预报方法研究

以浮式半潜平台为研究对象，针对影响气隙结果的波浪非线性效应进行研究分析。通过分析平台气隙响应特性，确保平台在极端海况下的安全性。首先通过数值计算与模型试验，对一座浮式半潜平台在极端海况下的气隙响应进行计算与测量；进一步对平台附近18个典型位置的波面升高响应进行统计分析与概率分布拟合处理；最终求得反映各处波浪非线性强度的非线性因子∂值，并与OTG-13规范中的建议值对比讨论。结果发现∂的计算值与建议值并不完全一致，由于波浪受平台运动及平台结构扰动影响，平台下浮体附近处波浪非线性效应较强，计算值较建议值大，需要重点考虑分析。相应地，距离平台结构较远位置处的计算结果与建议值一致。

Research on air gap prediction method of semi-submersible platform based on statistical analysis

Taking the floating semi-submersible platform as the research object, the wave nonlinear effect affecting the air gap result is studied and analyzed. By analyzing the air gap response characteristics of the platform, we aim to ensure the safety of the platform under extreme sea conditions. Firstly, we choose 18 typical positions near the platform, through numerical calculation and model test, to get the air gap response. And statistical analysis and probability distribution fitting method are adopted to calculate the nonlinear factor ∂ of the wave at each point, and compare the suggested values in the OTG-13 specification. It is found that the calculated value of ∂ is not completely consistent with the recommended value. Because the waves are affected by platform motion and the disturbance of the structure, near the bottom body of the platform, the wave nonlinear effect is stronger, the calculated value is bigger than the recommended value, which needs more attention. Accordingly, the calculated results of the location far from the platform structure are consistent with the recommended values.