灰色方法在黔南连续阴雨天气过程中的应用

利用黔南布依族苗族自治州（以下简称“黔南州”）龙里县、长顺县、都匀市3个国家气象观测站1964-2020年4月1日-9月30日逐日日降水和日照资料,按日降水＞0.1mm,日照为0h记为1个阴雨日,连续6个阴雨日以上且过程总降水≥30mm算为1次连续阴雨天气过程,分析了黔南州连续阴雨天气过程的时间、空间分布特征,同时利用灰色GM(1,1)方法预测黔南州3地连续阴雨天气的发生趋势。结果表明：在1964-2020年间,都匀出现连续阴雨天气的年际变化周期为2a,龙里和长顺为3～4a;都匀连续阴雨的日数和次数多于龙里和长顺,且过程总降水量也大于龙里和长顺;都匀连续阴雨天气预测周期约为2a/次,龙里和长顺的预测周期约3～4a/次;其研究结果对连续阴雨天气的监测、防治和农业气象服务工作具有参考意义,也为接下来研究黔南州农业气象灾害做铺垫。

Application of Grey Method in Continuous Rainy Weather Process in Qiannan

Based on the daily precipitation and sunshine data from April 1 to September 30,1964 to 2020 at three national meteorological observation stations in Longli,Changshun and Duyun of Qiannan Buyi and Miao Autonomous Prefecture(hereinafter referred to as "Qiannan"), if the daily precipitation is greater than 0.1mm and sunshine is 0h counted as 1 rainy weather day, and if there are more than 6 consecutive rainy weather days and the process of total precipitation is greater than or equal 30mm counted as a continuous rainy weather process. The paper analyses the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of continuous rainy weather processes in Qiannan Prefecture, and predicts the occurrence trend of continuous rainy weather in three areas of Qiannan Prefecture by using the GM(1,1) method. The results show that, between 1964 and 2020, the inter-annual variation cycle of continuous rainy weather is 2 years in Duyun and 3 to 4 years in Longli and Changshun; The days of consecutive rainy weather and times in Duyun is more than that in Longli and Changshun, and the total precipitation is also greater than that in Longli and Changshun; The forecast cycle of continuous rainy weather in Duyun is about 2 years, and Longli and Changshun is about 3 to 4 years; The results of the study are of reference significance for the monitoring, prevention and control of continuous rainy weather and agricultural meteorological services, and also paving the way for the next study of agricultural meteorological disasters in Qiannan.