Modeling propensity to move after job change using event history analysis and temporal GIS |
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Authors: | Marie-Hélène Vandersmissen Anne-Marie Séguin Marius Thériault Christophe Claramunt |
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Institution: | (1) Centre de recherche en aménagement et développement (CRAD), Université Laval, Quebec, QC, G1V 0A6, Canada;(2) Institut National de Recherche Scientifique, Centre Urbanisation Culture et Société (INRS-UCS), Montreal, Canada;(3) Institut de Recherche de l’Ecole Navale, Brest Armées, France |
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Abstract: | The research presented in this paper analyzes the emergent residential behaviors of individual actors in a context of profound
social changes in the work sphere. It incorporates a long-term view in the analysis of the relationships between social changes
in the work sphere and these behaviors. The general hypothesis is that social changes produce complex changes in the long-term
dynamics of residential location behavior. More precisely, the objective of this paper is to estimate the propensity for professional
workers to move house after a change of workplace. Our analysis draws on data from a biographical survey using a retrospective
questionnaire that enables a posteriori reconstitution of the familial, professional and residential lifelines of professional
workers since their departure from their parents’ home. The survey was conducted in 1996 in the Quebec City Metropolitan Area,
which, much like other Canadian cities, has experienced a substantial increase in “unstable” work, even for professionals.
The approach is based on event history analysis, a Temporal Geographic Information System and exploratory spatial analysis
of model’s residuals. Results indicate that 48.9% of respondents moved after a job change and that the most important factors
influencing the propensity to move house after a job change are home tenure (for lone adults as for couple) and number of
children (for couples only). We also found that moving is associated with changing neighborhood for owners while tenants or
co-tenants tend to stay in the same neighborhood. The probability of moving 1 year after a job change is 0.10 for lone adults
and couples while after 2 years, the household structure seems to have an impact: the probability increased to 0.23 for lone
adults and to 0.21 for couples. The outcome of this research contributes to furthering our understanding of a familial decision
(to move) following a professional event (change of job), controlling for household structure, familial, professional and
spatial contexts.
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Keywords: | Residential choice behavior Change of workplace Decision-making Event history analysis Spatio-temporal modeling Global and local spatial autocorrelation |
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